View source for Goodhart's law

Although '''Goodhart's law''' has been expressed in a variety of formulations, the essence of the law is that once a social or economic indicator or other ''surrogate'' measure is made a target for the purpose of conducting social or economic policy, then it will lose the information content that would qualify it to play such a role.  The law was named for its developer, [[Charles Goodhart]] (a chief economic advisor to the [[Bank of England]]). 

{{Quote
|text= '''Point 11'''

(a) Eliminate work standards (quotas) on the factory floor. Substitute leadership. 

(b) Eliminate management by objective. Eliminate management by numbers, numerical goals. Substitute leadership.
|author = Deming, W. Edwards. 
|source = The Essential Deming: Leadership Principles from the Father of Quality (p. 141). McGraw-Hill Education. {{ISBN|0071790225}}
}}

==Origin==
The law was first stated in a 1975 paper by Goodhart and gained popularity in the context of the attempt by the [[United Kingdom]] government of [[Margaret Thatcher]] to conduct [[monetarism|monetary policy]] on the basis of targets for broad and narrow money, but the idea is considerably older. It is implicit in the [[economics|economic]] idea of [[rational expectations]].  While it originated in the context of market responses the Law has profound implications for the selection of high-level targets in organisations.

It has been asserted that the stability of the economic recovery that took place in the United Kingdom under [[John Major]]'s government from late [[1992]] onwards was a result of ''Reverse Goodhart's Law'': that, if a government's economic credibility is sufficiently damaged, then its targets are seen as irrelevant and the economic indicators regain their reliability as a guide to policy.

==Alternate Expressions==
* ''A [[risk modeling|risk model]] breaks down when used for regulatory purposes''.  (Daníelsson, 2002)
::(Daníelsson formally labels this a corollary of Goodhart's Law.)
* Goodhart's law is a generalized social science expression of the more well-known and [[Economics|economic]]-specific [[Lucas critique]].

A related dictum is Campbell's Law:
{{quote|The more any quantitative [[social indicator]] is used for social decision-making, the more subject it will be to corruption pressures and the more apt it will be to distort and corrupt the social processes it is intended to monitor.<ref name="Campbell-1976">{{cite journal | last1 = Campbell | first1 = Donald T | year = 1979| title =  Assessing the impact of planned social change| doi = 10.1016/0149-7189(79)90048-X | journal = Evaluation and Program Planning | volume = 2 | issue = 1| pages = 67–90 }}</ref>}}

==Examples in healthcare==
* [[Colorectal cancer]] screening in U.S. veterans<ref name="pmid15161897">{{cite journal| author=Walter LC, Davidowitz NP, Heineken PA, Covinsky KE| title=Pitfalls of converting practice guidelines into quality measures: lessons learned from a VA performance measure. | journal=JAMA | year= 2004 | volume= 291 | issue= 20 | pages= 2466-70 | pmid=15161897 | doi=10.1001/jama.291.20.2466 | pmc= | url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&tool=sumsearch.org/cite&retmode=ref&cmd=prlinks&id=15161897  }} </ref><ref name="pmid24574474">{{cite journal| author=Saini SD, Vijan S, Schoenfeld P, Powell AA, Moser S, Kerr EA| title=Role of quality measurement in inappropriate use of screening for colorectal cancer: retrospective cohort study. | journal=BMJ | year= 2014 | volume= 348 | issue=  | pages= g1247 | pmid=24574474 | doi=10.1136/bmj.g1247 | pmc=3935739 | url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&tool=sumsearch.org/cite&retmode=ref&cmd=prlinks&id=24574474  }} </ref>
* Glycemic control guidelines in elderlky patients with [[diabetes mellitus type 2]]<ref name="pmid21480838">{{cite journal| author=Lee SJ, Boscardin WJ, Stijacic Cenzer I, Huang ES, Rice-Trumble K, Eng C| title=The risks and benefits of implementing glycemic control guidelines in frail older adults with diabetes mellitus. | journal=J Am Geriatr Soc | year= 2011 | volume= 59 | issue= 4 | pages= 666-72 | pmid=21480838 | doi=10.1111/j.1532-5415.2011.03362.x | pmc=3764989 | url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&tool=sumsearch.org/cite&retmode=ref&cmd=prlinks&id=21480838  }} </ref>.

* A possible example is [[Prostate cancer]] screening in elderly U.S. veterans<ref name="pmid31276198">{{cite journal| author=Radomski TR, Huang Y, Park SY, Sileanu FE, Thorpe CT, Thorpe JM | display-authors=etal| title=Low-Value Prostate Cancer Screening Among Older Men Within the Veterans Health Administration. | journal=J Am Geriatr Soc | year= 2019 | volume= 67 | issue= 9 | pages= 1922-1927 | pmid=31276198 | doi=10.1111/jgs.16057 | pmc= | url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&tool=sumsearch.org/cite&retmode=ref&cmd=prlinks&id=31276198  }} </ref><ref name="pmid17105796">{{cite journal| author=Walter LC, Bertenthal D, Lindquist K, Konety BR| title=PSA screening among elderly men with limited life expectancies. | journal=JAMA | year= 2006 | volume= 296 | issue= 19 | pages= 2336-42 | pmid=17105796 | doi=10.1001/jama.296.19.2336 | pmc= | url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&tool=sumsearch.org/cite&retmode=ref&cmd=prlinks&id=17105796  }} </ref><ref name="pmid35788786">{{cite journal| author=Radomski TR, Zhao X, Lovelace EZ, Sileanu FE, Rose L, Schwartz AL | display-authors=etal| title=Use and Cost of Low-Value Health Services Delivered or Paid for by the Veterans Health Administration. | journal=JAMA Intern Med | year= 2022 | volume=  | issue=  | pages=  | pmid=35788786 | doi=10.1001/jamainternmed.2022.2482 | pmc=9257674 | url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&tool=sumsearch.org/cite&retmode=ref&cmd=prlinks&id=35788786  }} </ref>

==Physician's role==
While improving compliance with guidelines may improve patient outcomes<ref name="pmid22762402">{{cite journal| author=Visser BC, Ma Y, Zak Y, Poultsides GA, Norton JA, Rhoads KF| title=Failure to comply with NCCN guidelines for the management of pancreatic cancer compromises outcomes. | journal=HPB (Oxford) | year= 2012 | volume= 14 | issue= 8 | pages= 539-47 | pmid=22762402 | doi=10.1111/j.1477-2574.2012.00496.x | pmc=3406351 | url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&tool=sumsearch.org/cite&retmode=ref&cmd=prlinks&id=22762402  }} </ref>, physicians have an ethical responsbility to balance care of the individual patient and the population health<ref name="pmid29256088">{{cite journal| author=DeCamp M, Pomerantz D, Cotts K, Dzeng E, Farber N, Lehmann L | display-authors=etal| title=Ethical Issues in the Design and Implementation of Population Health Programs. | journal=J Gen Intern Med | year= 2018 | volume= 33 | issue= 3 | pages= 370-375 | pmid=29256088 | doi=10.1007/s11606-017-4234-4 | pmc=5834965 | url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&tool=sumsearch.org/cite&retmode=ref&cmd=prlinks&id=29256088  }} </ref><ref name="pmid22825592">{{cite journal| author=Bogdan-Lovis E, Fleck L, Barry HC| title=It's NOT FAIR! Or is it? The promise and the tyranny of evidence-based performance assessment. | journal=Theor Med Bioeth | year= 2012 | volume= 33 | issue= 4 | pages= 293-311 | pmid=22825592 | doi=10.1007/s11017-012-9228-y | pmc= | url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&tool=sumsearch.org/cite&retmode=ref&cmd=prlinks&id=22825592  }} </ref><ref name="pmid24868064">{{cite journal| author=Baird AG| title=Just stick to the facts: remember Goodhart's law. | journal=Br J Gen Pract | year= 2014 | volume= 64 | issue= 623 | pages= 309-10 | pmid=24868064 | doi=10.3399/bjgp14X680305 | pmc=4032009 | url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&tool=sumsearch.org/cite&retmode=ref&cmd=prlinks&id=24868064  }} </ref>.

==Tactics to avoid harm from Goodhart's Law==
The RAND's [https://www.rand.org/health-care/projects/acove.html Assessing Care of Vulnerable Elders (ACOVE Project)] proposes<ref name="pmid21972311">{{cite journal| author=Lee SJ, Walter LC| title=Quality indicators for older adults: preventing unintended harms. | journal=JAMA | year= 2011 | volume= 306 | issue= 13 | pages= 1481-2 | pmid=21972311 | doi=10.1001/jama.2011.1418 | pmc=3285267 | url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&tool=sumsearch.org/cite&retmode=ref&cmd=prlinks&id=21972311  }} </ref>:

* Balancing measures such as adding to a quality measure for blood pressure control a quality measure for assessing otherstatic hypotention
* Adjusting measures for life expectancy rather than absolute age and consideration of "Lagtime-to-Benefit"

Other approaches:
* The N-of-1 trial<ref name="pmid19120979">{{cite journal| author=Kravitz RL, Duan N, Niedzinski EJ, Hay MC, Subramanian SK, Weisner TS| title=What ever happened to N-of-1 trials? Insiders' perspectives and a look to the future. | journal=Milbank Q | year= 2008 | volume= 86 | issue= 4 | pages= 533-55 | pmid=19120979 | doi=10.1111/j.1468-0009.2008.00533.x | pmc=2690377 | url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&tool=sumsearch.org/cite&retmode=ref&cmd=prlinks&id=19120979  }} </ref><ref name="pmid22810580">{{cite journal| author=Tanenbaum SJ| title=Improving the quality of medical care: the normativity of evidence-based performance standards. | journal=Theor Med Bioeth | year= 2012 | volume= 33 | issue= 4 | pages= 263-77 | pmid=22810580 | doi=10.1007/s11017-012-9226-0 | pmc= | url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&tool=sumsearch.org/cite&retmode=ref&cmd=prlinks&id=22810580  }} </ref>
* Goals should not be viewed as invariable<ref name="KuvaasBuch2018">{{cite journal|last1=Kuvaas|first1=Bård|last2=Buch|first2=Robert|title=Leader-Member Exchange Relationships and Follower Outcomes: The Mediating Role of Perceiving Goals as Invariable|journal=Human Resource Management|volume=57|issue=1|year=2018|pages=235–248|issn=00904848|doi=10.1002/hrm.21826}}</ref>.

==See also==
* [[Industrial and organizational psychology]]

==External links==
* Goodhart, C.A.E. ''Monetary Relationships: A View from Threadneedle Street'' in ''Papers in Monetary Economics'' Volume I, Reserve Bank of Australia, 1975
* K. Alec Chrystal and Paul D. Mizen, [[2001]], [http://cyberlibris.typepad.com/blog/files/Goodharts_Law.pdf ''Goodhart's Law: Its Origins, Meaning and Implications for Monetary Policy'']
* Daníelsson, Jón. "The Emperor Has No Clothes: Limits to Risk Modelling." Journal of Banking and Finance, 2002, 26, pp. 1273-96.

==References==
{{reflist|2}}

[[Category:Government]]
[[Category:Econometrics]]
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