ST elevation myocardial infarction prognosis
| Myocardial infarction | |
| ICD-10 | I21-I22 |
|---|---|
| ICD-9 | 410 |
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Editor-In-Chief: C. Michael Gibson, M.S., M.D. [1]
Associate Editors-In-Chief: Cafer Zorkun, M.D., Ph.D. [2]
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Prognosis
The prognosis for patients with myocardial infarction varies greatly depending upon simple demographic variables like age, the presence of signs and symptoms of heart failure, teh duration of symptoms, and comorbidities that are present. Using simple variables which are immediately available in the emergency room, patients with a higher risk of adverse outcome can be identified. For example, one study found that 0.4% of patients with a low risk profile had died after 90 days, whereas the mortality rate in high risk patients was 21.1%.[1]
Although studies differ in the identified variables, some of the more reproducible risk factors for higher mortality include:[2]
- Advanced age
- Sinus tachycardia
- Reduced systolic blood pressure
- Heart failure or Killip class of two or greater
- Anterior myocardial infarction location
These risk factors for 30 day mortality have been well validated in a multivariate analysis of 41,020 patients in the GUSTO-I trial. Advanced age was the most significant factor associated with higher 30-day mortality. The rate was only 1.1% in the youngest decile (< 45 years) and climbed to 20.5% in patients > 75 (adjusted chi 2 = 717, P < .0001). Other variables most closely associated with an increased risk of mortality were lower systolic blood pressure at randomizaiton (chi 2 = 550, P < .0001), higher Killip class (chi 2 = 350, P < .0001), elevated heart rate (chi 2 = 275, P < .0001), and the presence of an anterior infarction (chi 2 = 143, P < .0001). When taken together, these five baseline characteristics contained 90% of the prognostic information. Other significant though less important factors included previous myocardial infarction, height, time to treatment, diabetes, weight, smoking status, type of thrombolytic, previous bypass surgery, hypertension, and prior cerebrovascular disease. When these variables were combined, a validated model was created which stratified patients according to their mortality risk and accurately estimated the likelihood of death.
Other risk factors include, serum creatinine concentration, and peripheral vascular disease.[1][3][4]
Assesment of left ventricular ejection fraction may increase the predictive power of some risk stratification models.[5] The prognostic importance of Q-waves is debated.[6] Prognosis is significantly worsened if a mechanical complication (papillary muscle rupture, myocardial free wall rupture, and so on) were to occur.
There is evidence that case fatality of myocardial infarction has been improving over the years in all ethnicities.[7]
The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction TIMI Risk Score [8] and TIMI Risk Index [9] are two prognostic indices that have been validated in clinical trials and epidemiologic studies to predict 30-day mortality among patients with STEMI.
The TIMI Risk Score incorporates eight clinical variables (age, systolic blood pressure [SBP], heart rate [HR], Killip class, anterior ST elevation or left bundle branch block on electrocardiogram, diabetes mellitus, history of hypertension or angina, low weight and time to treatment >4 hours) and assigns them a point value based on their odds ratio for mortality.
The TIMI Risk Score was developed and validated in clinical trials of fibrinolytic therapy, but it has also been reported to be prognostic in community-based real-world registries [10] as well as elderly patients [11].
The TIMI Risk Index incorporates age, HR and SBP (HR x [age/10] x 2/SBP), and has been validated in unselected patients [12], registries [13] and population-based cohorts [14]
Interestingly, although tobacco abuse is a risk factor for CAD and STEMI, smoking is associated with a lower risk of mortality among patients who present with STEMI [15] [16] This is due, at least in part, to the finding that smokers who present with STEMI are, on average, at least a decade younger than non-smokers. Smokers more often have involvement of the right coronary artery rather than the left anterior descending artery as well. Smokers paradoxically have better myocardial perfusion following reperfusion therapy than non smokers (Kirtane et al).
References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Lopez de Sa E, Lopez-Sendon J, Anguera I, Bethencourt A, Bosch X; Proyecto de Estudio del Pronostico de la Angina (PEPA) Investigators. "Prognostic value of clinical variables at presentation in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes: results of the Proyecto de Estudio del Pronostico de la Angina (PEPA)." Medicine (Baltimore) 2002; 81(6): 434-42. PMID 12441900
- ↑ Lee KL, Woodlief LH, Topol EJ; et al. (1995). "Predictors of 30-day mortality in the era of reperfusion for acute myocardial infarction. Results from an international trial of 41,021 patients. GUSTO-I Investigators". Circulation. 91 (6): 1659–68. PMID 7882472. Unknown parameter
|month=ignored (help) - ↑ Fox KA, Dabbous OH, Goldberg RJ, Pieper KS, Eagle KA, Van de Werf F, Avezum A, Goodman SG, Flather MD, Anderson FA Jr, Granger CB. "Prediction of risk of death and myocardial infarction in the six months after presentation with acute coronary syndrome: prospective multinational observational study (GRACE)." BMJ 2006; 333(7578):1091. PMID 17032691
- ↑ Weir RA, McMurray JJ, Velazquez EJ. (2006). "Epidemiology of heart failure and left ventricular systolic dysfunction after acute myocardial infarction: prevalence, clinical characteristics, and prognostic importance". Am J Cardiol. 97 (10A): 13F–25F. PMID 16698331.
- ↑ Bosch X, Theroux P. (2005). "Left ventricular ejection fraction to predict early mortality in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes". Am Heart J. 150 (2): 215–20. PMID 16086920.
- ↑ Nicod P, Gilpin E, Dittrich H, Polikar R, Hjalmarson A, Blacky A, Henning H, Ross J (1989). "Short- and long-term clinical outcome after Q wave and non-Q wave myocardial infarction in a large patient population". Circulation. 79 (3): 528–36. PMID 2645061.
- ↑ Liew R, Sulfi S, Ranjadayalan K, Cooper J, Timmis AD. (2006). "Declining case fatality rates for acute myocardial infarction in South Asian and white patients in the past 15 years". Heart. 92 (8): 1030–4. PMID 16387823.
- ↑ Morrow DA, Antman EM, Charlesworth A, et al. TIMI risk score for ST-elevation myocardial infarction: A convenient, bedside, clinical score for risk assessment at presentation: An intravenous nPA for treatment of infarcting myocardium early II trial substudy. Circulation 2000; 102:2031-7.
- ↑ Morrow DA, Antman EM, Giugliano RP, et al. A simple risk index for rapid initial triage of patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction: an InTIME II substudy. Lancet 2001; 358:1571-5.
- ↑ Morrow DA, Antman EM, Parsons L, et al. Application of the TIMI risk score for ST-elevation MI in the National Registry of Myocardial Infarction 3. Jama 2001; 286:1356-9.
- ↑ Rathore SS, Weinfurt KP, Foody JM, Krumholz HM. Performance of the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) ST-elevation myocardial infarction risk score in a national cohort of elderly patients. Am Heart J 2005; 150: 402-10.
- ↑ Ilkhanoff L, O'Donnell CJ, Camargo CA, O'Halloran TD, Giugliano RP, Lloyd-Jones DM. Usefulness of the TIMI Risk Index in predicting short- and long-term mortality in patients with acute coronary syndromes. Am J Cardiol 2005; 96:773-7
- ↑ Wiviott SD, Morrow DA, Frederick PD, et al. Performance of the thrombolysis in myocardial infarction risk index in the National Registry of Myocardial Infarction 3 and 4: a simple index that predicts mortality in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. J Am Coll Cardiol 2004; 44:783-9.
- ↑ Bradshaw PJ, Ko DT, Newman AM, Donovan LR, Tu JV. Validation of the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk index for predicting early mortality in a population-based cohort of STEMI and non-STEMI patients. Can J Cardiol 2007; 23: 51-6
- ↑ Gourlay SG, Rundle AC, Barron HV. Smoking and mortality following acute myocardial infarction: results from the National Registry of Myocardial Infarction 2 (NRMI 2). Nicotine Tob Res 2002; 4: 101-7.
- ↑ Weisz G, Cox DA, Garcia E, et al. Impact of smoking status on outcomes of primary coronary intervention for acute myocardial infarction--the smoker's paradox revisited. Am Heart J 2005; 150: 358-64
External links
- The MD TV: Comments on Hot Topics, State of the Art Presentations in Cardiovascular Medicine, Expert Reviews on Cardiovascular Research
- Clinical Trial Results: An up to dated resource of Cardiovascular Research
- Risk Assessment Tool for Estimating Your 10-year Risk of Having a Heart Attack - based on information of the Framingham Heart Study, from the United States National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute
- Heart Attack - overview of resources from MedlinePlus.
- Heart Attack Warning Signals from the Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada
- Regional PCI for STEMI Resource Center - Evidence based online resource center for the development of regional PCI networks for acute STEMI
- STEMI Systems - Articles, profiles, and reviews of the latest publications involved in STEMI care. Quarterly newsletter.
- American College of Cardiology (ACC) Door to Balloon (D2B) Initiative.
- American Heart Association's Heart Attack web site - Information and resources for preventing, recognizing and treating heart attack.